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Jefferson County population growth slows considerably

By Delegate John Doyle - Report From the Legislature | Sep 3, 2021

The county-by-county population figures the Decennial Census released a couple of weeks ago showed that the growth in Jefferson County over the last 10 years has been seriously underwhelming.

The growth rate for the decade was 7.9 percent over the 2010 population of 53,498. That’s the lowest growth rate since 1950, and the actual number (4,203) is the lowest since 1970. Jefferson County’s population is now 57,701.

This compares to Jefferson County’s growth of approximately 11,500 people (27.5 percent) between 2000 and 2010. Even with significantly slower growth, Jefferson County grew the third most of West Virginia’s 55 counties between 2010 and 2020. Neighboring Berkeley County grew the most, from 104,000 to about 122,000 (about 18 percent). Monongalia County, home of Morgantown and West Virginia University, was second fastest (from 96,000 to about 105,000, about 10 percent).

In 1850, Jefferson County had a population of 15,000. A hundred years later, in 1950, that population had grown to only 17,000. By contrast, the part of Virginia that was to become West Virginia 13 years later had a population in 1850 of about 400,000. In 1950, the statewide population had grown to just over two million.

Beginning in 1960, the trajectories reversed. The figures below are approximate.

Jefferson County increased to 19,000 (12 percent) in 1960, 21,000 (10.5 percent) in 1970, 30,000 (42 percent) in 1980, 36,000 (20 percent) in 1990, 42,000 (17 percent) in 2000 and 53,500 (27.5 percent) in 2010.

Berkeley County’s population in 1950 was 30,000. It grew to 32,000 in 1960, 36,000 in 1970, 47,000 in 1980, 59,000 in 1990, 76,000 in 2000 and 104,000 in 2010.

But the state’s population declined from the 1950 figure to 1,900,000 in 1960 and to 1,750,000 in 1970. That statewide population jumped back up to 1,900,000 in 1980, then dropped back to about 1,800,000 in 1990. In the three decades since, we gained 10,000 in 2000, gained 50,000 in 2010 and lost 60,000 in 2020.

I have no explanation for Jefferson County’s slower growth since 2010. Many people with whom I’ve spoken since the numbers were published, insist that anecdotal evidence says we’ve grown by more than 4,200 people.

There are rumors of a larger “undercount” in the 2020 Census than is normal for a census. I doubt that’s the explanation for Jefferson County’s population count result. Had an undercount occurred in Jefferson, it would have occurred in Berkeley, and that does not appear to have happened.

Has growth increased recently? Any growth that has happened since April 1, 2020 wasn’t counted in the Decennial Census.

These figures mean that in the upcoming legislative redistricting — likely to occur in October — Jefferson County will share a new House of Delegates district with Berkeley County. We have too many people for our current three districts, but not enough for a fourth. The “shared” district will have between 5,000 and 6,000 people in Jefferson County, and about 12,000 people in Berkeley. That district could be located anywhere along the county line.

The State Senate district Jefferson shares with half of Berkeley’s population will lose some Berkeley County territory and population.

John Doyle is a delegate for the West Virginia District 67. He can be reached at johndoyle@wvhouse.gov.