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Winning Cougar baseball without dependence on analytics, launch angles or lockouts

By Bob Madison - For the Chronicle | Mar 18, 2022

SHENANDOAH JUNCTION — For 50 years now Jefferson High baseball coach John Lowery has fielded quality teams at Jefferson High School with a preponderance of pitching, hitting, thorough instruction in fundamentals and youthful hustle.

He’s done it — winning over 1,300 games and a dozen big-school state championships — with future professional players, his three sons, strike-throwing pitchers and strategy formed by his knowledge, instincts and the faithful help of the community and his assistant coaches.

When he began at the school in the 1973 season, there was no baseball field, no heritage to lean on and no tradition of winning.

Somehow he has been winning scads of games without the generational fads of analytics, launch angles, defensive independent pitching (DIP) or spin rate for his pitchers.

The 2022 version of the Cougars will do the same as has been happening for the previous 49 seasons as they attempt to push back the advances of Washington and Hampshire in their Sectional, as well as another grasp of the state championship by Bridgeport.

Jefferson’s last state championships came in 2015 and 2016 when Bridgeport was winning all of the Class AA state honors.

It was Bridgeport — in its first season in the Class AAA ranks — that ended Jefferson’s 2021 season in the semifinals of the state tournament. Jefferson’s 27-4 overall record was another in a decades-long reign of excellence where the team has won at least 20 games in all those seemingly limitless seasons.

Returning to attempt to keep the Cougars ahead of the pack with their pitching will be the experience of Daquon Shipe, Sammy Roberts, Peyton Corwine, Sam Wabnitz and Griffin Horowicz.

Much of the Cougars’ 2021 firepower left when Cullen Horowicz, Kamien Gonzalez, Zac Rose, William Allinger, Will Ricketts, Riley Vadasz, Mark Smith, Isaiah Morris and Mason LaFollette all graduated.

Back with thoughts of “on-base percentage,” runs scored and RBIs instead of “launch angles” or “exit velocity” are Connor Bailey, Griffin Horowicz, Roberts, Wabnitz, newcomer Josh Cienfuegos and Matt Vickers — the early-season corps of hitters Lowery will be relying on for much of his offense.

Bailey was the most productive of the returning starters.

Moving to more prominent roles on the varsity are Jarrett Day, Kellen Kinsler, Logan McCartney, Noah Carter, Austin Young, Ty Dunkin, Ryan Heffner, Ty Vickers, Colton Smith, J.J. Polvinale and Riley Morgan.

Several pitchers with little previous varsity success could easily move toward the front of the starting rotation if they can manage a boatload of strikes and obvious control of the strike zone. Spin rate won’t matter. Getting outs will matter.

There are no analytics that can tell you a player’s ability to perform when he has a slight injury, what his courage level is when faced with pressure, his baseball instincts or knowledge or his selfishness, his drive to win or his leadership qualities.

Winning at least 20 games a year for over 40 consecutive years came without analytics. It will probably come again here in 2022 because of pitching, hitting, base running, defense and fundamentals.